December 2022

Dog-strangling vine (Vincetoxicum rossicum) is a perennial vine, native to Ukraine and Russia, and aggressively invasive in eastern North America. In our study, we reconstruct the invasion history of this species to characterize changes in its rate of expansion over time. We use these data to compare the performance of species distribution models (SDM) constructed at different times over the course of the invasion. We show that dog-strangling vine reached environmental equilibrium 80 years after introduction, at which point SDMs built from records in the invaded range match the performance of models built from records in its native range. Our findings demonstrate the power of temporal dynamics in assessing equilibrium, a key assumption for understanding the current and future distribution of invading species.

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